Key Highlights–
- Year-round discounting and shifting shopper psychology are dimming Black Friday’s once-dominant appeal.
- New Deloitte data, cited by NBC News, show that Americans plan to spend 4% less during the Black Friday weekend, marking the first decline in years.
- Economic anxiety, inflation fatigue and flexible shopping tools like BNPL are making the “big shopping day” model increasingly irrelevant.
For decades, Black Friday symbolised the unofficial kickoff to America’s holiday shopping season, a cultural spectacle marked by dawn queues, doorbuster deals and viral footage of shoppers racing through department stores. But by 2025, the day has lost much of its power.
Black Friday’s Evolution: From Frenzy to Fatigue
Once built on scarcity and anticipation, Black Friday has been diluted by year-round discounting, algorithm-driven price alerts and retailers launching promotions weeks before the actual holiday. Large chains like Amazon, Walmart and Target routinely roll out “Black Friday” deals from late October, unintentionally killing the urgency that once defined the event.
This shift hasn’t happened overnight; it has been a gradual process spanning the past decade. In recent years, the pace of change has quickened, accelerating Black Friday’s decline from a high-stakes retail event to just another entry on the promotional calendar.
Consumers Aren’t Waiting for One Day Anymore
Modern shoppers are shaped by convenience, transparency and digital tools. Price-tracking extensions, comparison engines and constant online promotions mean consumers no longer see Black Friday as the only chance for a good bargain.
This year, that behavioural shift has been further validated by hard numbers: According to NBC News, citing a new Deloitte survey, Americans plan to spend 4% less between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, surprisingly, the first decline reported since at least 2021.
The cutbacks span income brackets. Deloitte found that shoppers earning under $50,000 plan to spend 12% less, while those making over $200,000 expect to cut spending by a striking 18%. Even households that traditionally splurge are now pulling back.
Economic Anxiety Is Reshaping Holiday Spending
Underlying the change is something more structural: Americans are increasingly nervous about the economy. According to NBC News, consumer confidence in November fell close to its lowest levels in decades, barely above the June 2022 reading when inflation was at its worst.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, cited in the report, indicated rising fear about job security and personal finances. 69% of respondents expect unemployment to increase next year, double the share from a year ago.
Inflation is still biting as well. Federal data shows that price growth has been creeping back up since April, reaching 3% in September, with consumers expecting it to climb to 4.5% next year. In this situation, people are less likely to splurge simply because it’s Black Friday.
Retail earnings support this trend: Walmart is thriving as people prioritise essentials, according to executives quoted by NBC News. Discount-driven brands like TJX and Gap are also seeing gains, while discretionary retailers such as Target and Bath & Body Works have struggled.
BNPL and the Rise of “Shop Whenever You Want” Behaviour
Another factor eroding Black Friday’s relevance is the rise of Buy-Now, Pay-Later services. A recent PayPal report, cited by NBC News, shows that half of holiday shoppers plan to use BNPL tools such as Klarna, Afterpay or Affirm this season. Nearly 40% of Gen Z and millennials expect to use BNPL specifically for Black Friday purchases.
These services spread spending across weeks or months, weakening the cultural impact of a date-based shopping holiday. Black Friday no longer dictates when people spend, and that alone undermines its relevance.
The Verdict: A Tradition That No Longer Commands Attention
Black Friday isn’t disappearing; retailers will continue to brand sales around it, and millions will still shop. However, the data, consumer sentiment and long-term trends reveal an unmistakable reality: Black Friday has lost its dominance, its urgency and its cultural force.
People don’t wait for it. Retailers don’t rely on it. And the economy doesn’t respond to it the way it once did. In 2025, calling Black Friday “just another sale” no longer feels like an exaggeration, it feels like the truth.
