From Obesity to Diabetes: Why Pharma Is Racing to Develop Weight-Loss Pills

Key Highlights

• The global weight-loss drug market is projected to exceed $150 billion by the early 2030s.
• Drugmakers are shifting focus from injections to oral pills to expand access and address supply constraints.
• New obesity treatments are increasingly seen as tools to reshape long-term diabetes care.

The market for weight-loss pills is expected to grow into one of the most lucrative segments of global healthcare, with revenues projected to surpass $150 billion by the early 2030s, according to industry estimates.

The surge has been driven largely by the runaway success of injectable GLP-1 drugs such as Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, which have reshaped treatment approaches for obesity and type 2 diabetes.

A $150 Billion Market Forces Pharma’s Hand

GLP-1 drugs, originally developed to treat diabetes, have evolved into blockbuster weight-loss therapies after clinical trials showed significant reductions in body weight.

Their success has triggered a strategic recalibration across the pharmaceutical industry.

Novo Nordisk became the first company to receive approval from the US Food and Drug Administration for a GLP-1 pill for obesity, marking a significant milestone in the sector. Providing the Danish drugmaker with an early competitive edge.

Why Weight-Loss Pills Matter More Than Injectables

While injectable GLP-1 drugs remain highly effective, pills offer several advantages. Oral medicines are easier to manufacture at scale, simpler to distribute, and typically face fewer logistical hurdles than injectables, which initially suffered from supply shortages amid surging demand.

Pills also lower psychological and practical barriers for patients unwilling or unable to self-inject, broadening the potential patient base.

Eli Lilly Pushes for First-Mover Advantage

Eli Lilly’s leading oral candidate, orforglipron, has delivered promising results in late-stage trials. In one study, overweight adults without diabetes lost up to 12.4% of their body weight over 72 weeks at the highest dose. Separate data showed the pill helped patients maintain weight loss after switching from injectable therapies such as Zepbound or Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy.

According to Reuters, FDA leadership has pressed reviewers to accelerate their evaluation of orforglipron following Lilly’s request for a faster timeline. If adopted, a regulatory decision could come as early as March, potentially reshaping competitive dynamics in the market.

Novo Nordisk Builds on Early FDA Approval

Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss pill is a 25-milligram oral formulation of semaglutide, the active ingredient in its injectable Wegovy. The company said a 1.5-milligram starting dose would be available in early January.

In a 64-week late-stage trial, participants taking 25 mg of oral semaglutide once daily lost an average of 16.6% of their body weight, compared with 2.7% for those on a placebo. The FDA approved the pill this week for chronic weight management in adults with obesity or related health conditions.

Smaller Players and Big Pharma Join the Race

Beyond industry leaders, several companies are pushing forward with oral obesity drugs. Structure Therapeutics is developing GSBR-1290, which showed weight loss of up to 11.3% after 36 weeks in a mid-stage trial. The company plans to begin late-stage development by mid-2026.

Merck, in partnership with Hansoh Pharma, is preparing early-stage trials for HS-10535, while AstraZeneca and Eccogene are advancing ECC5004, a once-daily GLP-1 pill with encouraging early safety data. Roche, following its acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics, is testing CT-966, which delivered rapid early weight loss in initial trials.

What This Means for the Future of Diabetes Care

As obesity and diabetes rates climb globally, the shift toward oral GLP-1 therapies signals a structural change in how metabolic diseases may be treated. Weight-loss pills could ultimately move from niche innovation to frontline therapy, altering treatment pathways for millions of patients.

For pharmaceutical companies, the race is not only about market share, but about defining the next generation of chronic disease management.