Morgan Stanley Sees SpaceX Revenue Reaching $3.4T by 2040
Morgan Stanley told investors this week that SpaceX could generate as much as $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040, as per a report by the Wall Street Journal. The bank’s model also put adjusted EBITDA for the company at roughly $2.7 trillion that year – figure that underscores how bankers are selling a future in which SpaceX evolves from a launch-and-satellite operator into a dominant player in artificial intelligence and other-high-margin services.
These projects were circulated in the quiet period before SpaceX’s planned initial public offering, which aims to raise about $75 billion and would be the largest IPO in history if it goes ahead as hoped. Banks typically share bullish forecasts with top investors during this phase; the numbers come from sell-side research teams that operate independently from the deal bankers running the offering.
SpaceX’s most recent disclosed results already show rapid growth but also big losses. The company reported $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and a $4.9 billion in net loss, while also flagging $3.2 billion in revenue from a nascent AI unit. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs project that AI will become the lion’s share of SpaceX’s future business.
Short-and medium-term projections differ between banks. Morgan Stanley and Goldman both estimate SpaceX could be doing roughly $160 billion in revenue by 2028. By 2030, their views diverge: Goldman Projects has more than $470 billion in revenue, while Morgan Stanley’s figure is near $330 billion. Much of that gap comes from different assumptions about how quickly profitably SpaceX’s AI offerings will scale.
Goldman sees the AI arm contributing about $322 billion in revenue by 2030; Morgan Stanley puts that figure closer to $190 billion. Those assumptions drive big differences in adjusted EBITDA forecasts too: both banks estimate adjusted EBITDA of around $110 billion 2028, but for 2030 Goldman forecasts about $352 billion while Morgan Stanley projects roughly $230 billion.
Why The Explosion in Revenue Assumptions?
AI as a multiplier: Both banks model SpaceX transforming its satellite and compute assets into a global AI infrastructure play. The company’s Starlink constellation, low-latency network, and specialized hardware are cited as potential building blocks for AI training and inference services that could command high margins.
New markets and services: Beyond launches and broadband, analysts assume SpaceX will monetize data services, edge computing, government contracts and commercial AI subscriptions at scale.
Vertical integration and pricing power: Backers argue SpaceX’s control over satellite hardware, launch capacity, and network could enable pricing power and recurring-revenue streams uncommon in traditional aerospace.
Skepticism And Risk
Not everyone will accept these forecasts at face value. Turning Starlink and other assets into a trillion-dollar-plus revenue engine faces steep challenges: technical complexity, high capital expenditure, regulatory hurdles, competition from hyperscalers and telecoms, and uncertain economics of large-scale AI infrastructure. The company’s 2025 loss highlights that scale does not guarantee immediate profitability, and massive upfront investment will be required to reach the sort of global footprint implied by the 2040 numbers.
Why Banks are Pushing Big Figures
Investment banks often present optimistic long-term scenarios to help justify high valuation during IPO roadshows. Goldman and Morgan Stanley secured the lead roles on the offering and stand to earn substantial fees if the deal prices well. Their sell-side teams produce forecasts that institutional investors use to evaluate the offering, but these are not guaranteed outcomes, they are models built on assumptions about market growth, competitive dynamics and execution.
What this Means for Investors and the Market?
As SpaceX moves toward what would be an unprecedented public listing, the debate will center on whether its assets and technical lead can be converted into the recurring, high-margin revenue streams that Goldman and Morgan Stanley forecast, or whether those projections will remain optimistic outliers in a highly uncertain future.
