Apple vs. Samsung: How the iPhone Maker is Set to Claim the #1 Global Smartphone Brand Spot

Key Points:

• Apple is projected to surpass Samsung this year to become the world’s largest smartphone maker by volume
•  A significant wave of consumers, who purchased devices during the pandemic-driven boom, are now entering their upgrade phase
• Apple continues to dominate the high-end smartphone market, which is seeing robust growth globally

The global smartphone market is witnessing a historic shift as Apple Inc. is set to surpass Samsung Electronics Co. this year to claim the title of the world’s largest smartphone maker by volume. 

This ascent marks the first time since 2011 that Apple has secured the No. 1 spot, ending Samsung’s long-standing reign. Industry analysts project this surge is propelled by a confluence of factors, including robust product launches and an inflection point in consumer upgrade patterns.

The Momentum Behind Apple’s Surge

Apple’s projected climb to the top spot for the first time since 2011 is driven by several interconnected factors. The iPhone 17 series, launched in September, emerged as a blockbuster product.

Reported by Bloomberg, the new models have successfully enticed consumers to upgrade, leading to double-digit year-over-year sales growth in key regions. Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang noted that “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point.”

This replacement cycle refers to consumers who bought phones during the COVID-19 pandemic-era surge now looking for new devices. Additionally, the significant volume of secondhand iPhones sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, estimated at 358 million units, is also expected to translate into new iPhone purchases in the coming years.

Strategic Market Penetration

Apple’s growth is not confined to its traditional strongholds. The company is also making significant gains in emerging markets. This expansion is reportedly aided by a cooling of US-China trade tensions and a depreciating dollar, which have boosted purchases in developing nations, researchers stated.

Furthermore, Apple is aggressively increasing its footprint in the crucial Indian market, becoming the third-largest iPhone market globally after the US and China. The brand is increasingly resonating with India’s Gen Z population, especially women and consumers in smaller towns, who view the premium smartphone as an extension of their identity and lifestyle. This aspirational buying trend is helping Apple close the gap with Samsung in one of the world’s fastest-growing mobile markets.

The Premium Segment Effect

A crucial part of Apple’s success hinges on its unwavering focus on the premium smartphone segment. While Samsung offers devices across all price tiers, Apple concentrates on the higher-value market.

The global trend shows consumers increasingly prioritizing premium devices, which now represent over 20 percent of the total market. Apple’s iPhone 16, 15, and 17 series collectively made up a majority of shipments in this high-end category in India in Q3 2025, according to IDC data reported by Business Standard. This dominance in the most profitable sector allows Apple to capture a larger share of the overall market value, even if its unit volume lead remains tight.

The anticipation of future innovations also bolsters Apple’s outlook. Counterpoint predicts Apple will maintain its lead through 2029, a forecast bolstered by expectations of a foldable iPhone debut in 2026 and a budget-friendly iPhone 17e model. These strategic launches can capture new market segments and sustain the company’s competitive advantage.

Samsung’s Position and Future Challenges

Samsung, while facing the prospect of losing its long-held top spot in annual shipments, remains a formidable competitor. The Korean giant has a strong presence across all price points and continues to lead in overall shipments during specific quarters, driven by the strong performance of its Galaxy S and Galaxy A series.

Samsung has also positioned itself as the leader in the foldable smartphone category with its Galaxy Z series. The company is actively investing in next-generation technologies, including the introduction of Galaxy AI, promising on-device AI features to boost productivity and digital well-being, as reported by Tridens Technology. This focus on innovation is key to Samsung’s strategy as the market shifts toward advanced software and features.

In 2025, Counterpoint projects iPhone shipments to grow 10% compared to Samsung’s 4.6% growth, underscoring the current momentum swing. While the overall global smartphone market is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2025, Apple is forecasted to claim a 19.4% share, marking a significant milestone.